Nigerians Show Some Level of Support for Ministerial List Even As President Buhari’s Approval Rating Peaks At 78 Percent
Abuja, Nigeria. October 13th, 2015 –
Latest poll results released by NOIPolls have revealed that following
the recent release of the Ministerial list by President Muhammadu
Buhari, almost 7 in 10 Nigerians (68 percent) are pleased with all the
nominees, although with varying degrees per nominee. In this regard,
former state governors, Babatunde Raji Fashola SAN (44 percent), Rotimi
Amaechi (31 percent), and Chris Ngige (25 percent); as well as past
senator Aisha Alhassan topped the list of Ministerial nominees most
appealing to Nigerians, while Hadi Sirika a former Senator (14 percent),
Ibrahim Usman Jubrin a former military governor (14 percent) were least
mentioned in this category.
Nominees were also assessed based on
familiarity (awareness of the nominee to the general public), as well as
their net favourability position (the overall public perception of the
candidate which is derived through positive opinions minus negative
opinions). In this light, Babatunde Raji Fashola had the highest
familiarity (90 percent) as well as net favourability (+61) among all 21
nominees. Similarly, Rotimi Ameachi had a high familiarity (89
percent) compared with Chris Ngige (77 percent) and Kayode Fayemi (71
percent), however they both have higher net favourability (+40 and +45
respectively) compared to Amaechi who had a lower net favourability of
+30.
Furthermore as Nigerians await the
release of the second list, some respondents (6 percent) indicated Prof
Pat Utomi a professor at Lagos Business School, Femi Falana (SAN) a
human rights activist and lawyer in Nigeria (4 percent), Charles Soludo
past Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (3 percent), Rabiu Kwankwaso a
former state governor (3 percent) and Oby Ezekwesili a former minister
of Education (2 percent) as possible recommendations for any subsequent
Ministerial lists.
Still on governance, recent approval
ratings conducted by NOIPolls for the President at the end of September
2015 revealed that the President’s job performance rating for the month
of September 2015 increased by 1-point to stand at 78 percent.
It is worthy noting that the general increase in his job approval in
September 2015 was observed across only 4 geo-political zones
(North-Central, North-East, North-West, South-West) with the North-East
zone (94 percent) recording the largest number of
respondents who approved of the president’s job performance. The
positive approval rating of President Buhari is mostly based on the
perceived ‘improved security’ (21 percent), ‘improved power supply’ (19 percent) and his ‘campaign against corruption’ (11 percent) across the country amongst other reasons.
Brief background
Nigerians had long-awaited President
Muhammadu Buhari’s Ministerial list and it has finally been made public
by the Senate President, Bukola Saraki, on the floor of the senate on
the 6th of October 2015.
Though the nominees were a mixture of
old politicians, retired military men, immediate past governors,
technocrats and former political appointees, the announcement of the 21
Ministerial nominees appeared to have increased the controversies as the
polity was suffused with claims, counter-claims and controversies over
the necessity or otherwise of the delay. Conceivably, the reactions
about the list vary from people to people and also in accordance with
their political interest and belief.[1]
Against this background, NOIPolls
conducted a recent survey to ascertain the awareness of Nigerians on the
recently released Ministerial list and also measure their awareness and
perception on all 21 nominees, as well as possible recommendation for
subsequent Ministerial list.
Survey Findings
The awareness of the recently released
Ministerial list was measured and findings revealed that most Nigerians
(80 percent) are aware of the release of the list. This news would not
have gone unnoticed, considering the fact that there was a wait for
about 4 months for this exercise.
Respondents who showed awareness of the
Ministerial list (80 percent of the total) were further asked what names
on the list appealed to them the most. Respondents were allowed to list
as many names on the list that appealed to them as possible. Responses
placed Babatunde Raji Fashola SAN (44 percent), who was the former
Lagos State Governor from May 29, 2007 to May 29, 2015, as the nominee
most appealing to Nigerians. This is followed by Rotimi Amaechi (31
percent), who served as the 5th Governor of Rivers State from 2007 to
2015.
Other top names on the list that
appealed to Nigerians include Aisha Alhassan (25 percent), a past
Senator; Chris Ngige (25 percent), a former governor of Anambra State;
Audu Ogbeh a past chairman of the People's Democratic Party from 2001
until January 2005 (22 percent); and Abdulrahaman Danbazzau (21
percent), a retired Nigerian Army Lieutenant General.
While all 21 names of nominees were
mentioned, some names were least mentioned and these include Hadi
Sirika, a former pilot and Senator (14 percent) and Ibrahim Usman Jubrin
a former Military Governor (14 percent). In addition, a considerable
proportion of respondents (23 percent) reported that no name on the list
appeals to them.
In the same manner, respondents were
asked what names on the Ministerial list did not appeal to them and
findings revealed that majority (68 percent) of the respondents did not
mention any name that did not appeal to them. This therefore implies
that most Nigerians endorse the Ministerial list, although 20 percent of
the respondents indicated Rotimi Ameachi’s as a name that did not
appeal to them on the list. This is followed by Babatunde Raji Fashola
(9 percent), Chris Nigige (9 percent) and Audu Ogbeh (8 percent) amongst
others.
The poll also measured the ‘Familiarity’ and ‘Favourability’
of the Ministerial nominees. Familiarity of nominees assessed the
general public awareness of the nominees. Similarly, favourability
measured the overall the perception of the respondents towards the
nominees, through positive and negative opinions of the respondents
towards the nominees. The perception of the respondents towards the
nominees is presented as Net Favourability of the nominees; derived by
positive opinions minus negative opinions.
Findings are presented in a 4 X 4 matrix
which shows the familiarity alongside the net favourability of each
Ministerial nominee as shown in the figure below.
The four quadrants are interpreted as follows:
- The top right quadrant implies a high familiarity and positive net favourability. Nominees that fall in this quadrant are well known and well liked.
- The top left quadrant implies low familiarity and positive favourability. Nominees in this quadrant have a positive net favourability but are not well known. They are only known by a few people but those few have very high opinions of them.
- The bottom left quadrant implies low familiarity and negative favourability. Nominees that fall in this quadrant are not well known and also have a negative public image.
- The bottom right quadrant implies high familiarity and negative net favourability. Nominees that fall in this category are well known, however they have a negative public image.
Based on the interpretation of the
matrix, findings revealed that all the nominees have positive
favourability, thus indicating positive public opinion given the fact
that no name appeared in the bottom left quadrant. The matrix also
reveals a clustering of nominees in the top left quadrant indicating
that these Nominees have a positive net favourability but are not well
known. Thus they have relatively the same level of favourability and
familiarity with minimal differences. Nominees in this category include
Abubakar Malami (SAN), Kemi Adeosun and Ahmed Ibeto amongst others.
Some names of nominees stood out in the
top right quadrant indicating a high level of familiarity as well as
favourability. For instance, Babatunde Raji Fashola which appears at
the top right of the matrix is an indication that among all the nominees
he has the highest familiarity (90 percent) as well as net
favourability (+61). Similarly, while Rotimi Ameachi has a higher
familiarity (89 percent) compared with Chris Ngige and Kayode Fayemi,
they both have a higher favourability compared with Rotimi Amaechi as
seen in the table below. A striking similarity amongst nominees in the
top right quadrant who have the highest familiarity and favourability is
that these are past executives.
|
Ministerianl Nominees |
Nationwide |
|||
|
% Familiarity |
% With Favourable (Positive) opinion |
% With Unfavourable (Negative) opinion |
Net Favourability |
|
|
Babatunde Raji Fashola |
90 |
71 |
10 |
+61 |
|
Kayode Fayemi |
71 |
53 |
8 |
+45 |
|
Chris Ngige |
77 |
52 |
12 |
+40 |
|
Aisha Alhassan |
58 |
44 |
7 |
+37 |
|
Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu |
56 |
40 |
5 |
+35 |
|
Solomon Dalong |
56 |
40 |
5 |
+35 |
|
Ogbonnaya Onu |
59 |
41 |
7 |
+34 |
|
Udo Udoma |
53 |
37 |
5 |
+32 |
|
Rotimi Amaechi |
89 |
54 |
24 |
+30 |
|
Lai Mohammed |
62 |
40 |
10 |
+30 |
|
Amina Mohammed |
51 |
35 |
6 |
+29 |
|
Abubakar Malami (SAN) |
48 |
33 |
5 |
+28 |
|
Audu Ogbe |
65 |
41 |
13 |
+28 |
|
Kemi Adeosun |
49 |
33 |
6 |
+27 |
|
Ahmed Ibeto |
47 |
32 |
5 |
+27 |
|
Abdulrahama Danbazzau |
50 |
33 |
7 |
+26 |
|
Adebayo Shittu |
47 |
30 |
5 |
+25 |
|
Ibrahim Usman Jubrin |
48 |
31 |
6 |
+25 |
|
Suleiman Adamu |
44 |
29 |
4 |
+25 |
|
Osagie Ehaneri |
46 |
29 |
6 |
+23 |
|
Hadi Sirika |
42 |
26 |
6 |
+20 |
Finally on this poll, respondents were
asked what names they would like to see for possible recommendation in
the subsequent Ministerial list. Findings revealed that on the one hand,
about half (52 percent) of the respondents who showed awareness of the
recently released Ministerial list, are just satisfied with the names on
the list such that they have no recommendation for subsequent
Ministerial list.
On the other hand, some respondents (6
percent) indicated Prof Pat Utomi a professor at Lagos Business School,
as a possible recommendation for subsequent Ministerial list. This is
followed by Femi Falana (SAN) a human rights activist and lawyer in
Nigeria (4 percent), Charles Soludo a former Governor of the Central
Bank (3 percent), Rabiu Kwankwaso a former Governor of Kano state (3
percent) and Oby Ezekwesili (2 percent). See Table after conclusion for
other names mentioned in the survey.
Still on governance, NOIPolls conducted
the fourth approval rating for President Muhammadu Buhari’s job
performance and the ninth in the 2015 monthly series of governance
polls, to gauge the opinions and perceptions of Nigerians regarding the
approval rating of the President. Findings revealed that a larger proportion of Nigerians (78 percent) approved of the President’s job performance over the past one month. On the other hand, 11 percent of the respondents disapproved of the President Buhari’s job performance, while another 11 percent of Nigerians neither approved nor disapproved of the President’s job performance over the past one month.
Further evaluation of the President’s performance by geo-political zone revealed that the North-East zone (94 percent: 65 percent + 29 percent) and the North-West zone (90 percent: 57 percent + 33 percent) accounted
for the larger proportion of Nigerians who approved of President
Buhari’s job performance, hence impacting the overall increase of the
President’s rating in September 2015. Conversely, the South-East zone (29 percent: 25 percent + 4 percent) and the South-South zone (22 percent: 18 percent + 4 percent) accounted for the largest ratio of respondents who disapproved of the President’s job performance.
Subsequently, respondents were asked to
state the reasons for approving or disapproving the President’s
performance. The result revealed that ‘Improved security’ (21 percent)
topped the lists of reasons for approving the President’s job
performance in September 2015. Other reasons on the list includes ‘improved power supply’ (19 percent) and ‘campaign against corruption’ (11 percent) amongst other reasons given by Nigerians. Conversely, Nigerians who disapproved the President’s job performance specifying that ‘there ‘hasn’t been any feasible changes in governance’ (65 percent) and ‘delay in appointing ministers’ (16 percent) among others reasons.
Conclusion
Following the recent release of the
Ministerial list, Nigerians (68 percent) have shown some support for the
nominees; with Babatunde Raji Fashola SAN (44 percent), a former Lagos
State Governor, Rotimi Amaechi (31 percent), former state Governor of
Rivers State. Aisha Alhassan a former Senator representing Taraba North
constituency of Taraba State, and Chris Ngige former state governor of
Anambra State (25 percent) topping the list as names most appealing to
Nigerians. As Nigerians await the release of the second list some
respondents indicated Prof Pat Utomi (6 percent), Femi Falana (SAN) (4
percent), Charles Soludo (3 percent), Rabiu Kwankwaso (3 percent) and
Oby Ezekwesili (2 percent) as possible recommendations for subsequent
Ministerial list. Finally, while Nigerians endorse the Ministerial
nominees, the fate of these nominees will be determined by the final
outcome of the screening process by the senate, commencing on the same
date as this release (Tuesday 13th October 2015).
Table: Other Names Listed by Nigerians for Subsequent Ministerial List|
S/N |
Names |
% |
S/N |
Names |
% |
S/N |
Names |
% |
S/N |
Names |
% |
|
1 |
Aisha Dimani Adamawa |
1 |
36 |
Jim Ovia |
0 |
71 |
Onyemuche Nnamani |
0 |
106 |
David Uwais Sam |
0 |
|
2 |
Abike Dabiri |
1 |
37 |
Chief Eze Duruiheamo |
0 |
72 |
Okechukwu Osita |
0 |
107 |
Mike Oshobuge |
0 |
|
3 |
Ahmed Ali Kaduna |
1 |
38 |
Ahmed Tinubu |
0 |
73 |
Faruku Adamu Aliyu |
0 |
108 |
Frank Nweke Junior |
0 |
|
4 |
Adams Oshiomhole |
1 |
39 |
Abba Moro |
0 |
74 |
Goodluck Jonathan |
0 |
109 |
Gorge Akume |
0 |
|
5 |
Abdulrazak Namdas |
1 |
40 |
Mr. Shekarau |
0 |
75 |
Jubril Aminu |
0 |
110 |
Prof Michael Adiku Vc Uni |
0 |
|
6 |
Ahmed Aboki |
1 |
41 |
Abubakar Tsav |
0 |
76 |
Ibrahim Tappa |
0 |
111 |
Zayyanu Mohammed Na Allah |
0 |
|
7 |
Aisha Gidado |
1 |
42 |
Ahmed Umaru Fintiri |
0 |
77 |
Buba Maruwa |
0 |
112 |
Ibrahim Umar Aniyeiye |
0 |
|
8 |
Adesina Akinwunmi |
1 |
43 |
Abubukar Gada |
0 |
78 |
Bomi Haruna |
0 |
113 |
Maniru Mohammed |
0 |
|
9 |
Alao Akala |
1 |
44 |
Abdullahim Idde |
0 |
79 |
Muhammadu Megar |
0 |
114 |
Bello Suleiman – Sokoto |
0 |
|
10 |
Dele Momodu |
1 |
45 |
Abdulhasis Yar'dar |
0 |
80 |
Usman Sa'idu Nasamu Dakin |
0 |
115 |
Balarabe Musa |
0 |
|
11 |
Pastor Tunde Bakare |
1 |
46 |
Aisha Dinami |
0 |
81 |
Buhari Bala - Kebbi |
0 |
116 |
Proffessor Ango Abdullahi |
0 |
|
12 |
Steve Torkuma Ugbah |
1 |
47 |
Adeyemi Kufiriji |
0 |
82 |
Dr Ibrahim .M. |
0 |
117 |
Saidu Dakingari |
0 |
|
13 |
Atahiru Jega |
1 |
48 |
Ahmed Markarfi |
0 |
83 |
Hajiya Ladahatu |
0 |
118 |
Suleiman Adebayo - Ogun Sta |
0 |
|
14 |
Buhari Bello |
1 |
49 |
Alozie Leah Nwadinma |
0 |
84 |
Malam Sani Aliyu |
0 |
119 |
Uche Ogocha - Imo Senator |
0 |
|
15 |
Festus Odimegwu |
1 |
50 |
Lola Shoneyin |
0 |
85 |
Mataima Sule - Kano |
0 |
120 |
Aleiro - Former Fct Minister |
0 |
|
16 |
Donald Duke |
1 |
51 |
Olagunsoye Oyinlola |
0 |
86 |
Mukthar Babayo |
0 |
121 |
Faruk Adamu Aliyu - Jigawa State |
0 |
|
17 |
Rochas Okorocha |
1 |
52 |
Chief Olorunfunmi Bashorun |
0 |
87 |
Fintiri -Ex Adamawa Speaker |
0 |
122 |
Victor Attah - Akwa Ibom State |
0 |
|
18 |
Yusfu Mataima Tuga -Bauchi |
1 |
53 |
Ademola Adeniji Adele |
0 |
88 |
Danjuma Goje |
0 |
123 |
Sullivan Iheanacho |
0 |
|
19 |
Bamaga Tukur |
1 |
54 |
Taofeek Kashimawo |
0 |
89 |
Aisha Jimani |
0 |
124 |
Prof Chris Okoroafor |
0 |
|
20 |
Mutarla Nyako |
1 |
55 |
Jafaru Isa - Kano State |
0 |
90 |
Festus Keyamo |
0 |
125 |
Suleiman Abba. |
0 |
|
21 |
Peter Obi |
1 |
56 |
Timi Alaibe |
0 |
91 |
Bar. David Ocholi |
0 |
126 |
Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau |
0 |
|
22 |
Balarabe Musa |
1 |
57 |
Peremobowei Ebebi |
0 |
92 |
John Oyegun |
0 |
127 |
Uyi Edgbe |
0 |
|
23 |
Ibrahim Umar - Kebbi State) |
1 |
58 |
Pro Bolaji Akinyemi |
0 |
93 |
Barth Nnaji |
0 |
128 |
Daniel Edebri |
0 |
|
24 |
Nmamdina Abdulraham |
1 |
59 |
Chimaroke Nnamani |
0 |
94 |
Segun Oni |
0 |
129 |
Mike Onlememen |
0 |
|
25 |
Justice Magomega |
1 |
60 |
Baba Nwanna |
0 |
95 |
Rt Col. Abubakar Umar |
0 |
130 |
Prof. Osugbo |
0 |
|
26 |
Zakari Salihu |
1 |
61 |
Chief Okey Ezea(Ideke) |
0 |
96 |
Prof Isaac Adewole |
0 |
131 |
Mr Solomon Ogba |
0 |
|
27 |
Babangida Aliyu |
1 |
62 |
Kolade Christopher Sure-P |
0 |
97 |
Anyim Pius Anyim |
0 |
132 |
Rev. Olu Martins |
0 |
|
28 |
Sullivan Chime |
1 |
63 |
James Bala Nglari |
0 |
98 |
Dakuku Peterside |
0 |
133 |
Fani Kayode |
0 |
|
29 |
Babatunde Fashola |
1 |
64 |
Buba Galadima |
0 |
99 |
Mohammed Marazu Tsiga |
0 |
134 |
Emmanuel Jime |
0 |
|
30 |
Nasir El-Rufai |
1 |
65 |
Attihiru Bafarawa |
0 |
100 |
Prof. J.D Amin |
0 |
135 |
Mrs Lawrencia Laraba-Mallam |
0 |
|
31 |
Nana Dawodu |
0 |
66 |
Saidu Nasumu Dargri |
0 |
101 |
Shaibu Mugadi Dan Jarida |
0 |
|
0 |
|
|
32 |
Professor Daniel Saror |
0 |
67 |
Aliyu Wammako |
0 |
102 |
Ibrahim Birnin Gfada |
0 |
|
0 |
|
|
33 |
Dr Paul Unongo |
0 |
68 |
Boss Mustapha |
0 |
103 |
Wole Soyinka |
0 |
|||
|
34 |
Alhaji Ahmed Rufai Sani Yerima |
0 |
69 |
Sani Aliyu Zuru |
0 |
104 |
Labara Maku |
0 |
|
|
|
|
35 |
Nuhu Ribadu |
0 |
70 |
Ankpai Daniel |
0 |
105 |
Tam David West |
0 |
|
|
|
Survey Methods
The opinion poll was conducted in the week of October 5th 2015.
It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000
randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above,
representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were
interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence
that the results obtained are statistically precise - within a range of
plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited is No1 for country specific polling
services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies
on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More
information is available at www.noi-polls.com
Disclaimer
This press release has been produced by
NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the
subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to
share results from our polls with the general public, we only request
that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll
results are used, cited or published.
NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the
views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of
respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based
on information from various sources that it believes are reliable;
however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete.
Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no
responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any
views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of
information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates,
opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this
document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and
content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking.
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